1. President Trump’s administration wants to increase pressure on China
2. Active monetary stimulation of the EU economy may continue for a long time
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing sector in September rose from 49.5 to 49.8 points, but remains below 50 (the fifth consecutive month), indicating a decrease in activity amid a trade conflict with the United States. Data from Caixin Media Co contradict official statistics. According to their estimates, in September the manufacturing sector PMI grew from 50.4 to 51.4 points, which indicates an increase in production. It is worth noting here that the Caixin report is based on a survey of managers of more than 500 large manufacturing companies in China, while official data are mainly based on a survey of smaller private manufacturers.
According to media reports, a new round of trade negotiations between the US and China will begin on October 13 in Washington. Earlier, Bloomberg News reported that in order to increase pressure on Beijing, the Trump administration is considering limiting US investment in the Chinese economy. The White House also wants to ban the quotation of securities of Chinese companies on US exchanges.
According to recent statements by Mario Draghi, active monetary stimulation of the EU economy may continue for a sufficiently long time if the EU leadership does not implement fiscal policy changes. According to him, the ECB will continue to pursue a rather soft policy, but this can lead to increased side effects, which are becoming more obvious. However, the main risks to the economy are outside the EU. These are increased geopolitical uncertainty, worsening global trade and Brexit.
News worth paying attention to today:
7:55 GMT. Germany: September labor market report
8:30 GMT. Great Britain: data of the final assessment of GDP growth in the 2nd quarter