Podstawowa analiza

Weak US statistics support EUR / USD

EURUSD

The pair EUR / USD closed trading on Wednesday with a moderate increase of 0.24% amid the publication of weak statistics from the United States.

According to the ADP report, 135 thousands new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector for a month, compared to 157 thousands a month earlier and a forecast of 140 thousand. These figures confirm the opinion of experts who, after falling PMI in the manufacturing sector, predicted a decrease in demand for labor in the United States. The likelihood of publishing weaker data in the US Department of Labor Friday report has increased significantly. According to CME Group, the market now estimates the likelihood of at least one Fed rate cut this year at 86%.

It is worth noting that in Germany today is a day off, which may affect the level of liquidity and market volatility during the European trading session. In the morning, you should pay attention to the publication of data on retail sales and PMI services sector from the EU. Weaker data may put pressure on the EUR / USD pair in the short term. Statistical data from the USA, where the publication of the PMI of the non-manufacturing sector and the services sector are expected to exert a greater influence on trading. The data below forecasts can be a strong driver for further growth of the EUR / USD pair.

On the chart, correctional movement is now developing from the level of 1.0960. While the price is below this mark, a downward movement remains a priority, with the target at 1.0890. In case of a breakdown of 1.0960 from the bottom up, we can expect the growth of quotations to 1.0990.

Resistance levels: 1.0960, 1.0990, 1.1025.

· Support levels: 1.0930, 1.0890, 1.0850.

The main scenario is a decline to 1.0890.

An alternative scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 1.0960 and an increase to 1.0990.

Locally, the market is dominated by a moderately negative news background. There are no good trading signals on the chart now. In the medium term, we recommend considering long positions when the price drops to the area of ​​1.0890-1.0905.

 

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