Podstawowa analiza

Jangkaan: Kemerosotan menuju paras 106.94-107.00 dan kemudiannya lantunan ke atas. Cadangan dagangan: Jualan menuju paras 106.


At the beginning of the week oil market is being traded mixed. Investors are focused on trade talks between the USA and China which scheduled for 10-11th of October in Washington. Oil prices are quite sensitive for any news linked to this event. During american trading session the pressure on prices was put by decision of the White House on blacklisting 28 Chinese companies. Many investors had worries over cancellation of negotiations. But this morning China has officially confirmed, that on Thursday trade negotiators headed by the PRC’s State Council Vice-Premier Liu He. Deputy trade negotiators from both sides also began a new round of talks on Monday aimed at ending the protracted trade dispute.
Market was able to partially regain some losses after claims of economic adviser of the White House Larry Kudlow that United States so far are not considering the question regarding delisting Chinese firms from U.S. stock markets. This move might escalate U.S.-China tensions and could throw some of China’s biggest companies into chaos.

Besides geopolitical news in the coming days investors will closely monitor the publishing of industry data from the U.S. and reports of OPEC and IEA. This evening API will deliver the data on dynamics of oil inventories. Data from U.S. Energy Department will be in the spotlights tomorrow.

On the chart corrective movement continues its development. Key support levels still resides at the 57.20 mark. Mid-term target is 61.40 level.

Resistance levels: 58.90, 60.00, 61.40;

Support levels: 57.20, 55.55, 55.00.

Main scenario: Decline towards 57.20 and resumption of upward movement.

Alternative scenario: Growth of the quotes from current levels.

Market retains mixed sentiment. The price still holds above support at 57.20 on the chart. For intraday trading we consider long-positions nearby the 57.20 level.

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