Podstawowa analiza

Brent: Oil quotes reside nearby the 2-month lows


Oil prices continue to trend down and almost reached 2-month trading lows, which can be renewed shortly. Pressure on the market was produced by the U.S. oil inventories data. Despite analysts’ forecasts and API data oil inventories rose by 3,1 million barrels in the reported week having increased investors’ concerns over forming of oversupply on the market. Crude stocks in USA grow for the third consecutive week and now reached the 5-year average level. At the same time production level is at its highest now increasing the likelihood of further growth of crude stocks. Brent spiked to $72 a barrel on Sept. 16 following attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities that stalled more than half of the country’s output. But Brent crude grade is now below the pre-attack level after the Saudi authorities restored output.

One more factor which weighs in on the market is the situation on stock markets. Major indices closed the second day in a row in the red amid growth of concerns over slowdown in global economy. This will produce negative impact on the level of demand and may drive to substantial imbalance of the market.

On the chart the price gained a foothold below the 57.50 level, that opens room for further decline of the quotes in direction of the 55.50 level.

Resistance levels: 57.50, 59.40, 61.40;

Support levels: 56.50, 55.50, 55.00.

Main scenario: Decline towards 55.50.

Alternative scenario: Decline towards 56.50 and correction towards 57.50.

Fundamental background is still negative. Bearish signals prevail on the chart. For intraday trading we consider short-positions from 57.50.


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