Podstawowa analiza

Brent: Production volume in OPEC-countries dropped to the 8-year low


On Monday oil market again closed trading session in the red having renewed 2-week lows. The major pressure on the market was produced by the news that Saudi Aramco fully restored supply level after the attack on processing facilities.

Today market is attempting to recover some losses for the account of reports over decline of output level in OPEC countries. According to the data published today overall production volume in OPEC countries in September made just 28,9 million bpd which is 0,75 million bpd lower than August numbers. The biggest drop of production in September was recorded in Saudi Arabia due to attacks on oil facilities - 9,05 million bpd against 9,75 million bpd in August.

According to Reuters reports oil production in Venezuela continues to fall as well. Output at the world’s two largest producers, the United States and Russia, also fell in July and September respectively. Analysts have opinion that this tendency will be extended amid lack of investments and tightening sanctions by the U.S.

Shortly investors will focus on the U.S. manufacturing data. This evening we’ll get reports from API and tomorrow a report from U.S. Department of Energy.

The price on the chart has reached an important mid-term support level at 59.40. We can expect forming of quite strong retracing movement from this level with targets at the 60.40 and 61.40 level.

Resistance levels: 60.40, 61.40, 62.90;

Support levels: 59.40, 57.50, 55.50.

Main scenario: Correction towards 60.40.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 59.40 and decline towards 57.50.

Mixed sentiment is established on the market. On the chart a downward tendency prevails locally, therefore for intraday trading we give preference to long-positions from 60.60 and 61.40.


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