The EUR / USD pair is still trading with a decline, amid a stronger dollar and expectations of monetary policy easing by the ECB.
The dollar was supported by the statements of Donald Trump on reaching agreements with the Congress on budgeting and raising the national debt ceiling. Also, investors are very positive about the information about the full resumption of direct contacts between representatives of the United States and China to regulate the trade conflict.
Demand for the European currency continues to fall due to signals of monetary policy easing against the background of the deteriorating situation in the economy. On the eve, one of the representatives of the ECB, Philip Lane, said that constantly low inflation indicates the need for new measures from the regulator. Therefore, many experts and investors expect the ECB to lower interest rates at the September meeting and resume the QE program by the end of the year.
Today, the focus of investors will be data on sales in the secondary housing market in the US, as well as the situation in the debt market and geopolitical news.
Currently there was a breakdown of support at 1.1200. This is a strong bearish signal with which today we can expect a renewal of the minimum of June 18, at 1.1180, and further development of the bearish movement in the direction of the level of 1.1130.
· Resistance levels: 1.1225, 1.1280, 1.1300.
· Support levels: 1.1170, 1.1130, 1.1100.
The main scenario - a decline to 1.1130.
An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1200 and the development of a corrective movement.
The market is dominated by a negative news background, which contributes to the further development of the downward movement. Therefore, intraday preference is given to shorts that are worth looking for near the 1.1225 level.