Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market keeps chances for growth


Oil market has closed yesterday’s trading session in the red despite good report of U.S. Energy Department on oil inventories. According to the report oil inventories continue to decrease for the seventh consecutive week. Decline has made 8,5 million barrels in the latest week posting a record low in inventories since November 2018.

A drawdown took place despite substantial recovery of daily average output, that reached 12,2 million barrels and reduction of refineries’ workload because of Hurricane “Barry”.

Analysts link declining market to reaction on FOMC meeting, that drove to strengthening of dollar index to 2-year peak and dragged down demand for dicey assets.

Reuters agency has delivered a very interesting oil market statistics data. According to their information production in OPEC countries in July has dropped to its lowest since 2011 and makes 29,42 million barrels per day for today as a further voluntary cut by top exporter Saudi Arabia deepened losses caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran. Many countries including Saudi Arabia output less oil now than the quotas permit.

On the chart yesterday’s decline notwithstanding a good potential preserves for further development of upward movement in direction of the 66.60 level. To achieve that buyers have to hold the price above 64.00 level now.

Resistance levels: 65.00, 66.60, 67.30;

Support levels: 63.80, 62.30, 61.00.

Main scenario: Growth in direction of the 66.60 level.

Alternative scenario: Stabilizing below 64.00 and decline towards 62.30.

Overall market sentiment is still moderately-positive, therefore for intraday trading we give preference to long positions for this asset, seeking them at the 63.80 level.

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