Fundamental analytics

Gold moves to $ 1,500

XAUUSD

Gold maintains an upward vector due to increased investor interest in defensive assets amid worsening international trade.

The bullish signal for investors was also the comments of the presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard and San Francisco, Mary Daily, who noted that increased uncertainty in international trade could force the Fed to continue the cycle of lowering interest rates. At the same time, they noted that it is too early to talk about possible decisions of the regulator in this regard, but, in the context of growing trade tension, it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict the prospects of the US economy.

Today, one of the drivers of the growth in the value of gold could be the decision of the RBNZ that was unexpected for the market - to reduce the interest rate immediately by 0.50% (the forecast was -0.25%). This decision plunged the New Zealand dollar against the US currency by almost 2%. Surprised the market also and the decision of the Reserve Bank of India, which reduced the rate by 0.35%, with a forecast of -0.25%. Unexpected decisions by the Central Banks further increased market uncertainty, stimulating demand for traditional defensive assets. Therefore, the prospects for the growth of gold to the psychologically important level of $ 1,500 already this week look quite real.

A strong bull trend remains on the chart, the most obvious target for which is the level of 1500.00. One can consider long positions from the support levels of 1475.00 and 1455.00, but in the current situation there remains a high probability of a recoilless development of the upward movement.

Resistance Levels: 1490.00, 1500.00, 1505.00;

Support Levels: 1475.00, 1455.00, 1432.00.

The main scenario is recoilless growth to 1500.00.

An alternative scenario is a correction to 1475.00 and an increase to 1500.00.

The fundamental background remains bullish. Therefore, within the day we give preference to longs. Safer entry points are at 1475.00 and 1455.00. More aggressive entry points can be seen at 1283.00.

 

 

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