Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD is recovering before FOMC meeting


The EUR / USD pair is trading in a rather limited range, awaiting the outcome of the FOMC meeting.

The pressure on the currency pair is still exerted by weak economic data from Europe, which increase the likelihood of easing of the ECB’s monetary policy.

Today, primary estimates of economic growth in France in the 2nd quarter were published, according to which GDP (q / q) grew by 0.2%, while the forecast was + 0.3%. The annual growth rate was 1.3%, which coincided with the forecast of experts.

The consumer climate index in Germany retained a bearish trend and for the month dropped from 9.8 points to 9.7, which is the minimum value of this indicator since October 2016. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending, and its data indicate a high probability of further decline.

The support factor for the EUR / USD pair is the FOMC meeting from which investors are waiting for the interest rate to drop by at least 0.25%. Therefore, in the next two days, the demand for the US currency is likely to fall, contributing to a moderate recovery in the EUR / USD pair.

Today, the main influence on trading will be provided by news from the United States, where a report is published on individual spending, sales data on the real estate market and consumer confidence index CB.

On the graph, you can see the horizontal channel, with borders at the levels of 1.1100-1.1155. There is a very high probability that in the next day trading will take place in this price range. It is possible to count on the formation of a stronger recoil movement after the breakdown of resistance at 1.1155. In this case, you can count on growth to 1.1200.

· Resistance levels: 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240.

· Levels of support: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1000.

The main scenario is consolidation in the range of 1.1100-1.1155.

The alternative scenario is a breakdown of resistance at 1.1155 and an increase to 1.1200.

Fundamental background in the market now can be described as neutral. Therefore, inside the day we are waiting for the development of the outset in the range of 1.1100-1.1155.


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