Fundamental analytics

EUR / USD declines in anticipation of the outcome of the ECB meeting


EUR / USD is still under very strong pressure and is trading near annual lows. The PMI data published yesterday indicated a decline in economic activity in the sectors of production and services, which increases the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the ECB to stimulate the region's economy.

The outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy issues will be announced today. Experts believe that the regulator will keep the interest rate unchanged, therefore, the final performance of Mario Draghi will have a stronger impact on trading. From the head of the ECB investors expect signals of monetary policy easing at the September meeting. Signals about the resumption of a large-scale QE program are also possible.

Obviously, against this background, the prospects for the recovery of the EUR / USD pair remain very limited. With a high degree of probability, we can expect that by taking advantage of the increasing volatility, the bears will try to update the annual minimum and try to move as close as possible to the level of 1.10.

On the chart, we note the complete dominance of sellers. The pressure on the level of 1.1130 is increasing, therefore, in the coming hours, we are waiting for the breakdown of this level and decline below the level of 1.1100, for the first time since May 2017.

· Resistance levels: 1.1155, 1.1200, 1.1240.

· Support levels: 1.1130, 1.1100, 1.1080.

The main scenario - a decline to 1.1080.

An alternative scenario - consolidation above 1.1155 and growth to 1.1200.

The market still has a rather strong negative news background. The chart is dominated by bearish signals. Intraday, we prefer shorts that are worth looking above the 1.1155 level.

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