Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market follows the development of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz


Oil market shows tempered reaction on the conflict between Iran and Western countries. Investors closely monitor the flow of events linked to the seizure of British oil tanker by Iran.
At an emergency meeting on Monday, security ministers and officials discussed how to secure transportation in the sensitive region, which is vital to the world’s oil supply.
This conflict drove to growth of tanker transportation price list, but so far these changes didn’t found its reflection in market prices. For many Western countries transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is fraught with high risks and it’s going to be a tangible support factor for the market until the conflict is resolved.

Market also continues to ignore positive news regarding resumption of direct negotiations between USA and China. South China Morning Post magazine has reported a day before, that delegation from Washington headed by Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will visit Beijing next week. China will be represented by Vice Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China Liu He.

Today investors also will follow the publishing of weekly data from API on dynamics of oil inventories.

On the chart the price still consolidates at the area of 63.00 level. Locally bullish signals prevail, therefore during the coming trading days we should expect further development of upward movement with targets at the 64.60 and 66.60 levels.

Resistance levels: 64.60, 66.60, 67.30;

Support levels: 62.80, 61.00, 59.50.

Main scenario: Growth towards 64.60.

Alternative scenario: Break of support at 62.80 and decline towards 61.00.

Fundamental background on the market is still positive, therefore for intraday trading we give preference to long-trades of the asset, that should be considered in the vicinity of 62.80 level.

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