Fundamental analytics

Brent: Oil market declines on concerns over dropping demand


Oil market opens trading week in the red on the back of growing concerns over sliding energy demand.

Data on China manufacturing PMI published this morning were controversial and didn’t provide support to the market. Official statistics still points to curtailment of manufacturing increasing probability of energy demand decline in China. China’s economic outlook remained weak with an ongoing trade dispute with the United States weighing on demand growth for the world’s largest crude importer. Later this week there will be a release of manufacturing PMI and jobs data in USA, that will give notice on prospects of economy.

According to the poll by The Wall Street Journal most of experts anticipate retaining of downward direction of oil market movement in the fourth quarter. Saudis managed to restore production volume quite quickly after the attack on oil facilities. Investors’ concerns over lack of supply on market has dropped substantially. At the same time risks linked to the decline of global energy demand remain very high. Situation in global trading continues to get worse. Economic indicators in the major regions of the world still point to curtailment of manufacturing and consumption.

On the chart downward tendency still prevails. Bears formed a new resistance level at 61.40. New downward wave is developing from this mark now with the closest target at 59.40.

Resistance levels: 61.40, 62.90, 64.40;

Support levels: 59.40, 57.50, 55.50.

Main scenario: Decline towards 59.40.

Alternative scenario: Break of resistance at 61.40 and growth towards 62.90.

Negative sentiment prevails on the market. On the chart we have domination of bearish signals. In short term we consider short-positions in the vicinity of the 61.40 level.

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