Fundamental analytics

Оverview Brent, NG


Natural Gas

Natural Gas price on Wednesday showed tangible growth, having closed the day with positive result of +1,2%. At the same time, growth of the quotes was triggered not so much by impact of fundamental factors as under influence of technical stuff. As of medium term the price resides in quite a narrow price channel now, its boundaries can be marked  by the levels 2.750-2.900. On Tuesday the price has tried out the lower wall of price channel, that remained unbroken. Correspondingly, now on the chart a local bullish wave develops within sideways tendency. The main target for this current movement of the price is 2.900 level.

Today data from the US Energy Department on dynamics of gas inventory level will be in the investors’ focus. Analysts expect a decline by 208B.

Our recommendations: Short-term longs from 2.810.


On Wednesday oil price has hit the four-month highs due to support provided by the data of the US industry statistics and positive dynamics of equity market movement.

According to information introduced by Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Department for this week oil inventory in the country decreased by 3,9 million barrels, while analysts expected to see rise of inventory by 2,6 million barrels. Also for the reported week petroleum inventory dropped by 4,6 million barrels and output level showed decline from all-time peak of 12,1 million barrels per day to 12,0 million bpd. According to the opinion of many analysts further curtailment of oil inventory and production in USA will provide serious support to oil market despite the certain decline in investors’ appetite for risks. But yesterday stock market of Europe and USA closed the trading session in the green, therefore “black gold” got an extra support factor, which increased bullish sentiment on the market.

Today market is still trending upward despite the weak data on industrial production in China, that enhance investors’ concerns regarding the prospects of global economy development.

The quotes are also supported by upbeat expectations of publishing of OPEC monthly report, that will be delivered a bit later today. Investors are sure, that oil cartel is in full compliance with all obligations that were taken within the Vienna agreement and cuts production volumes aiming to balance the demand and supply level on the market.

On the chart long-awaited break of the resistance level 67.50 took place, which kept the quotes in a sideways channel 64.50-67.50 for a long time. This is a solid signal for continuation of upward movement in direction of the next target, which resides at the 70.00 level. Therefore today we should give priority to long-trades of the asset, that ought to be searched after the forming of retracing movement towards the strong local support at 67.00.

Our recommendations: Long-trades from 67.00.