Weekly reviews

Christmas season start will support the markets today

Yesterday the European market gained slightly, in the expectation of positive Friday session trading when Christmas retail season starts. (CAC + 0,29% FTSE + 0,17%, DAX + 0,25%) Europe was supported by good statistics on Germany. The data showed GDP growth in the 3rd quarter by 0.2%, the annual value was 1.5%.

European stocks were little changed after the opening of the day, despite the decline in oil prices and the Italian banks concerns. The weak euro supported the demand for shares of exporting companies, which offset the weakness of the energy sector. Since August, the euro weakened by about 7% against the US dollar. US indices futures traded in the green zone as well.

Asian stocks strengthened amid weak regional currencies, and positive European stock exchanges close. However, Asian markets positive may be short- as investors expect that new president Donald Trump, will pursue a policy of increasing costs, which will lead to an increase in public debt. Expectations of growth in spending in the US has caused a surge in government bond yields, which leads to capital withdrawal from emerging markets. US Treasury bonds two-year yields jumped to a 6-year high of 1.17% on Friday. 10-year bonds yield reached a 16-month high of 2.417% on Friday. (Nikkei + 0,26%, S P ASX 200 + 0,41%, Shanghai Composite + 0,62%)

In the FOREX market US currency continues to rise, after the Trump victory. In addition, strong production and consumption data in the US this week, strengthened the case for higher interest rates. The dollar index rose 0.4% this week, and 3.8% from 8 November.

Today, the oil market is under pressure. The recent market confidence in OPEC's deal came to naught, and a strong US currency puts pressure on the oil market. Short term trading range for oil market in our expectation is around $ 49- $ 47.

US dollar slowed gains due to Thanksgiving Day in the United States. In addition, the US currency is overbought and the dollar index will likely not be able to take 102 level this week. The main news topic of today's trading is a "Black Friday", the results of which we will learn on Monday. It is possible that the Christmas rally in the stock markets begin to form as early as next week.