Weekly reviews

December Fed rate hike probability close to 100%, ECB President speech in the market focus

On Friday, global markets moved to decline thought indexes were down moderately. Sharp gain in US dollar triggered positions close in the commodity and financial sectors as investors took profit in commodity markets. On the agenda interest rates story in the United States is back. A week before the next OPEC meeting the oil and gas sector are on the rise in developed markets.

Today European stocks traded in the red, as the gains in the energy and oil sector, were unable to offset the drop in the pharmaceutical, banking and consumer goods sectors.

Amid the lack of economic data, investors are turning their attention to the political risks in the region.

Italian banks continue to be under pressure on concerns about the capitalization of UniCredit and Monte Paschi, as well as the upcoming constitutional referendum in Italy. As a result Italian FTSE MIB index is a leader of decline in the European Region.

Earlier, Asian markets were positive and the majority of indexes were able to close in the green on stronger oil and the weaker national currency against the US dollar. The stock market of Japan continued to gain amid weaker yen and mixed economic data boosted that risk appetite in the Japanese market. Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the three months to September, beating economists' expectations. At the same time, Japan's exports fell by -10.3% in October compared with a year earlier, the forecast of -8.6%. Japanese imports fell by 16.5% in October compared with a year earlier, the forecast of -16.3%. Japan's trade balance is to a seasonally adjusted 470 billion, the forecast of 410 billion. The trade balance of Japan, in October 496 billion, at the forecast of 615 billion. Today data supported Nikkei + 0.77%, Australia's S P ASX 200 -0,15%, Shanghai Composite + 0,79%.

Relative positive on the oil market was generated Iran and Iraq Russia comments and the positive expectations OPEC meeting on 30 November. Friday's data on drilling in the US was ignored (the data showed 19 new units) Technically Brent crude was able to settle above the level of $ 47, which now acts as support. In the wake of OPEC expectations and the informational inputs, it is possible to expect the oil market will test area of ​​48 dollars per barrel.

On the FOREX currency, market the US dollar traded mixed, after a strong gains last week today the American currency has slightly corrected. Traders remain cautious, waiting for new economic data that will help determine the future trends in the currency market. Today currency pair EUR / USD is in the market focus as ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to provide annual statement before Europe parliament. USD / JPY pair keeps on gaining as price moved to the highs of May 2016 highs.

Since the beginning of the week, the redistribution of market assets continues due to the increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike after Trump victory. Financial sector, and government bond are under the pressures. Investors try to analyze the impact for global economy and new moves of the head of the White House. Markets expect an increase in inflationary pressures in the United States in connection with government spending by new president. US protectionist policies could undermine export potential of certain countries and regions. At the same time investments in infrastructure able to support the construction sector and industrial metals in general. This week the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published, though there will be no great impact (now the probability of a rate hike in December, close to 100%) Today we expect subdued trading in the absence of significant news and economic drivers.