Yesterday, the European stock closed the day with slight gains. There was a chance that after the Italian weekend referendum European investors would prefer to take a cautious, wait and see attitude. However, Eurozone retail sales data changed market sentiment and helped to close the day in the green. Retail sales in the euro area rose by 1.1% (latest data for October -0.4%) This is the first strong retail sales figures since the summer of 2016 and Brexit concerns. At the same time it seems that a political crisis in Italy will be following a more controlled manner, as the President of the Italian Republic did not accept prime minister resignation, instructing him to engage in budget development for the next year. (FTSE + 0,24%, CAC + 1,0,% DAX + 1,6%.)
US indices also gained on Monday. Business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) in November rose 57.2, while analysts had expected 55.4. US session trading passed quietly, amid strong oil and lokally weak US dollar.
Today, in the absence of significant macroeconomic data global markets are waiting for the main event of the current week - upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday. Most European stock indexes are trading in positive territory amid high oil prices and positive expectations on the part of the ECB. High oil prices also support the stock market, the demand for the shares of energy companies remains high. The price of oil remains near the highs of the year at $ 55 a barrel.
The consumer price index in Switzerland, dropped to -0.2% in November from the previous month, the forecast of -0.1%. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter, as analysts expected. US indices futures trade neutrally.
In the FOREX market, the US dollar went to a local correction yesterday. US dollar index has lost more than 1.5%. Based on this European currency moved to the rapid growth to Eur 1.0775. We believe that US dollar weakness is only temporary. US dollar index will stay above the level of 100 points.
Yesterday Brent crude oil market made an attempt to test the level of $ 55 per barrel. Today, oil is stable at the $ 54.75 level. Positive continues to be present in the market but the players took a wait before OPEC meeting with oil-producing countries who are not members of the cartel, which will be held on Saturday.
In general, the market situation is characterized by the presence of positive sentiment in the stock markets. Europe is beginning to gain some day before ECB meeting in hope of continuing regulator stimulos program. However, closer to Thursday we will see more restrained trading. Strong oil continues to support the markets, but further growth is possible when practical results of Saturday meeting reached. $ 55 level looks quite strong. Today, the market focus is on large block of US economy data.