Weekly reviews

Inflation data increased the probability of rate hike

After yesterday's maximum levels, US markets opened in the red today. The main statistics of the week confirmed the surge in inflation and thus increased the fears that the probability rate hike this year is increasing. The statistics showed that the consumer price index (CPI) grew more than expected, the growth was the largest in seven months, year on year to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent in July. Against this background, the chances of raising rates in December rose to 50.9 percent from 41.3 before the release of data, according to the tool CME Group FedWatch.

In addition to data on inflation, investors analyzed weekly data from the labor market. The number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits fell last week, but remains above the latest trends due to hurricane Harvey.

Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 284,000, seasonally adjusted for the week ending September 9, the Ministry of Labor said on Thursday. Economists interviewed by The Wall Street Journal expected 305,000 new applications.

The FOREX market reacted to the data with a strong surge in volatility. However, the initial strengthening of the dollar was leveled by the market, and the instruments returned to the levels before the release of the data.

The oil market is trading positively on Thursday. After a local pullback from the level of 54.50, which turned out to be somewhat weaker than we expected, oil resumed its growth and is now trading at around 55.50. The market is approaching the medium-term resistance $ 56.65. Oil gain continues the fourth consecutive session after the last OPEC report.

The International Energy Agency said that last month, world oil supplies fell by 720,000 barrels a day, mainly because of civil unrest in Libya and disruptions in production in the US due to Hurricane Harvey. The decline in production in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also affected the higher compliance with the cartel deal with some external producers, including Russia.