28, October 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The phase of inflation is not negative for the first time since December 2008. National Consumer Price Index y/y in September: 1.1 % (0.9 % expected and it was 0.9 %). The National Consumer Price Index y/y excluding fresh food for September: 0.7 % (0.7 % expected, it was 0.8%).

National CPI excluding food, energy y/y in September: 0.0 % (0.0 % expected, the previous was -0.1 %). The first time he was not adverse to the December 2008.

USD/JPY failed to recover to the highs at 97.38/40 and pair fell to 97.20 and then below 97.00.

The pair triggered stop-loss below 97.20 on thinner -than-normal trading on Friday.

We can see that Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are directed downwards. Chinkou Span is below the price, the cloud is going down now. Tenkan-Sen is directed downwards, Kijun-sen is horizontal.

The upward movement will remain if the price stays above 98.36.

Bollinger Bands indicates the change of the trend being directed down.
The MACD is in a negative area right now.

Trading recommendations

There is a strong support level 97.00 above the sloping support line 96.90.
The bouncing from 97.00 was quite predictable allowing the pair to get to the upper limit of the downward channel 97.80. But before that, the price will test the resistance level of 97.50.