27, September 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The yen fell against all 16 major counterparts after "Kyodo News" reported that the Japanese government "immediately" started to study how to make effective cuts of income tax rate. The U.S. currency strengthened against the yen before the GDP report in the largest economy in the world, which is projected to have grown at a faster pace than estimated in the second quarter.

USD / JPY marked another minimum at 98.26, but the trend is still bullish as MACD is above the zero line and the RSI indicator is looking up. In the medium term, the bulls still focus on 101.48 (but 100.68 is the first target). The first resistance is at 100.68, the next levels are 101.50/68, 102.53.

On the other hand, the support is located at levels 98.26 and 97.90.

The current sell signal is strong and confirmed, as Chinkou span entrenched below the price and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the price is below the critical Kijun-sen line if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen, the "dead cross" will be weakened and may be canceled.

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are crossed in a descending "dead cross". Kijun-sen is moving in a horizontal direction parallel to the cloud, and the Tenkan-Sen continues to grow. The price is below the cloud. The Cloud is growing.

Bollinger Bands follow the price up. The indicator shows a high volatility.
MACD is in a negative area.

Trading recommendations

To continue the growth the pair needs to break the downward trend line at resistance level 99.20 and 99.30, paving the way for such marks as 99.50 and 100.00.