26, April 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The U.S. dollar has not overcome the major milestone of 100 Japanese yen, after the release of negative data on Durable Goods Orders. On Wednesday it was reported about the March decline in orders for these products in the U.S. by 5.7%, the forecast was - 2.9%.

The pair reached the point 99.77. After the publication the pair could not resist and lost its positions. Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, said that such a reduction in Durable Goods Orders shows that economic development slowed down again.

The pair closed the New York session at 99.30. The USA news did not allow the the dollar to break through the 100-th level. April 4 the Bank of Japan released an ambitious program to ease monetary policy. But the expectations placed on the dollar did not come true.

The pair is above the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen, the Kijun-Sen line is directed upwards, the Cloud is growing.

Bollinger bands are narrowing and directed aside.
The MACD histogram is growing.

The indicators confirm the northern movement.

Trading recommendations

We believe that in the short term the pair will be in the flat or continue an upward trend.

The goal of the northern movement is the 100 level, the last time the pair was not able to overcome it. Let's see if it has enough power to do it this time.

One can go long after a steady penetration of 99.30.
We can speak about the sales can only if the pair returns to the Cloud.