19, September 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

USD/JPY is under the pressure on the background of the dollar weakeness (Index Dollar ICE is at 81.15 against 81.27 on Tuesday morning), reducing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, a prolonged effect of the withdrawal of the candidature of Lawrence Summers from the race for the post of chairman of the Fed, fears of impending political struggle to raise U.S. debt ceiling, sales of Japanese exporters. But the loss of USD/JPY constrained by demand from Japanese importers, buying yen crosses on the back of positive sentiment risk, on expectations of a modest narrowing of the Fed's stimulus program.

The current sell signal is strong and confirmed, as Chinkou span entrenched below the price and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the price is below the critical Kijun-sen line if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen, the "dead cross" will be weakened and may be canceled.

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are crossed in a descending "dead cross". Kijun-sen is moving in a horizontal direction parallel to the cloud, and the Tenkan-Sen continues to grow. The price is above the cloud. The Cloud is growing.

Bollinger Bands follow the price up. The indicator shows a high volatility.
MACD is in a positive area and is descending.

Trading recommendations

The growth is postponed or maybe cancelled at all after surprising news from the USA. The pair fell to 97.90 where it stopped. After such a fall we believe that the pair stops for a while or may even pullback to 98.40.