19, June 2014

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The dollar fell against the Japanese currency yesterday, the selling was driven by the renewed fall in the U.S. government debt market price which resulted in increase of the U.S. "Treasuries" yield

In addition, support for the dollar in the dispute with the yen was influenced by the data on the United States inflation. There was published important data in Japan which indicated that the situation in foreign trade market was almost unchanged - the trade balance was recorded in May with an increase in the deficit to - 909.0 billion from -811.7 billion yen. Perhaps these data and the stock market growth in Japan triggered the yen continued fall at today's session.

However, as it seems, the main events for this pair are in front and they will begin to unfold after the Fed's decisions on monetary policy.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70. There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

The corrective pullback from 102.70 was ended by the downward trend line level breakthrough up to 102.23. The trend line break occurred at the increased volume and the background of fundamental data on the yen. Apparently, the news overall picture had a positive impact on the buyers.

There is a strong resistance level 102.30 on the dollar growing way. The buyers need to break above this level to confidently continue the upward trend. It will open the way to the following marks: 102.60, 102.70 (maximum of this month).