18, November 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

Strong technical resistance levels near the psychological 100.00 stopped the pair and provoked a decline The USDJPY hit 100 for the first time since September 11. The yen continues to weaken, Nikkei rose on Thursday by 2.1%, while the Nikkei futures reached a nearly 6-month high level. Japan GDP turned out a bit better than expected (+0.4% q / q) for the third quarter. The pace of economic growth slowed to 0.5% q / q from 0.9% in the previous quarter - the Japanese economy is shrinking for the second consecutive quarter, as weak consumer spending and a slowdown in export growth surpassed the strengthening of investment in real estate.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank of Japan will apply additional stimulus measures in the second quarter of 2014 - just after the Fed will announce about minimization of QE3, which can be a catalyst for the rally in USDJPY.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal, as the chart is consolidated below Chinkou span, and the Ichimoku cloud is below the price. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are directed upwards. Chinkou Span is below the price, the cloud is growing. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen are directed upwards.

Bollinger Bands indicates the change of the trend. The bands are widening and are going upwards.
The MACD is in a positive area right now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair continued its recovery and went to the secondary resistance 100.60. Its overcoming will be another signal that confirms the uptrend with the goal to testing the maximum 103.75.