18, June 2014

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The drop in the Japan stock market, Nikkei -1.09%, and the Iraq conflict lowered the traders’ risk appetite and returned the yen popularity as a shelter. The Japanese currency strengthened in the first half the trading day and the market had enough volatility to finish the day off with a small "profit" against the dollar. The dollar growth in the U.S. session, after the good statistics publication on the U.S. economy, only partly offset losses against the yen.

The downward pullback from 102.70 moved to a side corridor, and the major resistance level which is the 102.05 mark. The buyers tested its strength for the third time, coming across the level on reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70. There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The 102.05 resistance possible break will meet the downward trend line 102.15 as an obstacle. The unsuccessful 102.05 trend line resistance level retest is more likely to lead the price to a bounce down.