18, June 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Investors continue to close short positions, the pair is aimed at new low levels. USD/JPY dropped another 1.5%, and it is within reach of a new 2-month low point. The Japanese have only themselves to blame for not responding to the growth and falling in JGB yields Nikkei. If they want to calm the volatility on USD/JPY, they will have to take action.

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the price is below Kijun-sen, if the yen is fixed above the Kijun-sen, the "dead cross" will be weakened, the short position will be temporarily relevant.

Chinkou Span is below the price that is a confirmation of the current sell signal and indicates a bearish market sentiment.

Bollinger Bands show a downward movement, the bands are directed downward and are narrowing.
MACD is directed upward, indicating the current uptrend.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to feel the support from the large bids in the 93.80/70 area. Though the market is stable the bulls are still cautious, as sellers still try to sell. There are some offers in the area of 94.40/50, and even more around the level 94.80.

We believe that the technical picture shows the probability of falling to the level 92.60, before it will be seen more active attempts to form a base.