16, June 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

We can see that the price started a correction and consolidated at 94.79, MACD also indicates an upward correction. The current sell signal is strong and confirmed as Chinkou Span is below the price, and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud.

The first goal of the downward movement is the support level 94. Should the price overcome this level the downward movement will be continued to 92.90.

Downward movement will be relevant as long as the price is below Kijun-sen, if the yen is fixed above the Kijun-sen, the "dead cross" will be weakened, the short position will be temporarily relevant.

Chinkou Span is below the price that is a confirmation of the current sell signal and indicates a bearish market sentiment.

Bollinger Bands show a downward movement, the bands are directed downward and dilate.
MACD is directed upward, indicating the current uptrend.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to feel the support from the large bids in the 93.80/70 area. Though the market is stable the bulls are still cautious, as sellers still try to sell. There are some offers in the area of 94.40/50, and even more around the level 94.80.

We do not see that the downward momentum is losing its powers.

We believe that the technical picture shows the probability of falling to the level 92.60, before it will be seen more active attempts to form a base.