15, May 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Since April 2009 the dollar for the first time was able to overcome the mark of 100 last week. After the Bank of Japan announced a large-scale stimulus program, the market watched thr pair growing to that mark.

According to a senior dealer working in a large European bank in Tokyo, the pair USD/JPY may meet difficulties with the growth in the range 101.50-102.00 as market participants expect the new signals related to recovery of the U.S. economy.

The price is above the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen line is going up, the cloud has a growing shape. The buy signal is strong and confirmed.

The upward movement will be in force until the price is above the Kijun-sen, if the price is fixed below the Kijun-Sen that will weaken or cancel the buy signal.

Bollinger Bands are directed upwards and widening indicating a continuation of the growth.
The MACD has stopped growing, the histogram has reached its maximum. The signal line can cross the histogram down in the near future, giving a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is likely to experience difficulty with growth at 102.30 as the Japanese stock market is expected to lowering. But so far everything indicates on a growth. The first target is 102.10, the pair broke through the level, now we wait until it will consolidate at it. After the consolidation the pair should go to the level 103.