15, February 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Analysis on JPY/USD shows us that the price could not pull away from the Ichimoku cloud and entered into it yesterday. That might be a signal for a correction or a beginning of a downward movement. The current buy signal is canceled as the Chinkou Span is one level with the price and the price itself is in the Ichimoku cloud and below the Kidjun-sen.

We recommend staying out from the market until the situation is cleared out. Now we can see two scenarios.
The first one – it is just a correction and the price will return to an upward movement soon. Should that happen the first goal will be at 93.73. When the price consolidates above it the growing will be continued to 94.65.

The second scenario is a downward movement. The price will fall down if it stays below the Kidjun-sen and fixes below 92.17. The upward movement will be actual as long as the price is above the Kidjun-sen (93.37).

Bollinger Bands are going down staying for a downward movement. We believe that short orders are actual now.

MACD is directed down telling us about a possible correction. If the price consolidates below the level 92.17 that will cancel the upward moving and the price will continue to fall.

Trading recommendations

Our short term forecast- stay out of the market. It is better not to open anything when the price is in the Ichimoku cloud. We advise holding your positions until we get the clear signal to enter the market. The price can go any way right now. If it manages to pullback from the Ichimoku cloud it will be set on the upward path. Still a correction might be started or a downward movement. ‘

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.