11, February 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Analyzing USDJPY on February 11, we see that the price couldn’t fixed above the first level of resistance 93,73 and started a small correction. The current sell signal is confirmed and weak as the Chinkou Span is above the price chart and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Now the goal for ascending movement is the first level of resistance 92,17 which is already worked out, but has not overcome yet. When the price overcomes this level a downward movement can be continued with the second level of support 90.04.

An upward movement will have power until the price is above the critical line of Kidjun-sen (93.08). If the price consolidates below this line it will question the upward movement and will weaken « golden cross».

The Chinkou Span is above the price chart that is a confirmation of the current sell signal, indicating the bullish mood of traders.

Bollinger Bands shows a side movement, bands are a little narrowed. It is recommended to stay out of the market now.

MACD is turned down that indicates the current correction movement; that’s why long positions will be relevant current correction is over. If the price rebounds from the level 93,73 this also can be a signal to renewal of an upward movement.

Trading recommendations

It is recommended to stay out of the market now. We should wait till the correction is over. We have two alternatives right now. The price can return to an upward movement. We will have the following targets should this scenario happen 93.73 and 94.65. If the price stays above the Ichimoku cloud the price will go up.

The second scenario is the correction that may turn into a downward trend. If the price penetrates the Ichimoku cloud and fixes above it that can cancel an upward movement and turn the correction into a downward movement.

If the price goes down the levels 90.04 and 88.89 will become our first targets.

When we get 30 - 40 points of profit we move stop loss to a breakeven.

Except technical data you need to consider the fundamental one as well.