09, August 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

Agency Nikkei news, suggests that the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr. Abe is weighing the possibility of the increase in the sales tax, but in steps of 1%.

If we get the confirmation of this the fiscal adjustment will become a gradual process to avoid sudden 3% growth, as previously planned - from 5% to 8% in April 2014.

Trend Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected in a descending "dead cross". Kijun-sen is moving in a horizontal direction parallel to the cloud, and the Tenkan-Sen continues to go down.

The price is continuing to decline and can overcome the second support level after just a small retracement. The current sell signal is strong and confirmed, as Chinkou span entrenched below the price, and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. So now the goal for the downward movement of the support level is 95.70, which has already worked out, and can soon be overcome.

Bollinger Bands follow the price down. The indicator shows a high volatility.
MACD is in a negative area.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to fall. It is likely to yield 95.00 in the short term.

Should the price pass that mark (95.00) that will open the road to even a deeper fall to the support level 92.50 or 90.00. However, it is probable a trend up reversal. In this case, we expect a rebound in the direction of the area 98.50-100.00, that serves as resistance now.