USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)
The USD/JPY rose up early the second week. This reminds of the events taking place on the summer U.S. “Treasuries” trading, which make us think about the connections of these processes. The U.S. government bonds initially declined in value, increasing their profitability and provoking the dollar selling versus the Japanese yen. Then the bonds grew up and, reducing the yields, supporting the yen. The selling by the Japanese exporters, who on the last day of the fiscal year tidied their results and reports up, could constrain the U.S. dollar growth.
The first support is 102.23, the next one is 101.60. The first resistance is 103.00. the next one is 103.80.
The pair is growing. Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are directed upwards. The northern movement is strong as the pair is above the Cloud. The Cloud is growing as well. The northern movement remains until Kijun-Sen is below the price.
MACD is in a positive area. The indicator is growing showing a buy signal.
We expect a downward correction. The downward retracement potential target will be the rising trendline 102.85 - 102.90. After a retest of the trend line we can expect the upward trend continuing. The main purpose of the growth will be the resistance level 103.80.