01, October 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

Japanese retail sales rose 1.1 percent in August from a year earlier, government data showed a sign that consumer spending is gaining some momentum. For comparison, the average estimate is 0.1 percent annual increase and 0.3 percent decline from the beginning of the year to July, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

USD/JPY opened below the range of the past two weeks, 97.76 - 99.66. Now the gap almost closed. On the upside, the rise above 99.66 will send the pair to 100.61 and above. In general, the pair is still limited in the consolidation from 103.73 and a new trading range is difficult to determine.

The current sell signal is strong and confirmed, as Chinkou span entrenched below the price and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud

The downward movement will be relevant as long as the price is below the critical Kijun-sen line if the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen, the "dead cross" will be weakened and may be canceled.

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are crossed in a descending "dead cross". Kijun-sen is moving in a horizontal direction parallel to the cloud, and the Tenkan-Sen continues to grow. The price is below the cloud. The Cloud is growing.

Bollinger Bands follow the price up. The indicator shows a high volatility.
MACD is in a negative area.

Trading recommendations

If the price does not manage to break above 98.00 today, there will be a rebound down with the further continuation of the bearish trend. The level of support 97.60 will be the potential target of the reduction. The break above 97.60 will open the way to 97.00.