01, May 2013

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Industrial production in Japan increased by 0.2% in March. According to the government, these data are weaker than the forecast was, according to the forecast the growth was to increase by 0.4%. However, these data were enough for the government to enhance an overall assessment of the state of the sector, pointing to the continued recovery in industrial production.

Despite the fact that the economic calendar is saturated this week, there are not enough participants and catalysts to push the pair USD/JPY above 100.

The only data that can support the pair is the U.S. labor market in the non-agricultural sector that is published on Friday. However, it is not known for sure whether this will be enough for the pair to grow above this key level.

Bollinger bands are expanding, the middle line is directed downwards.
The MACD histogram is in a negative zone, below the signal line. The indicator is going down, supporting a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is directed downward. If the pressure continues the USD/JPY can go to the level 97.80. The next target of the southern movement is 96.55.

The second scenario is a trading in the Cloud. This scenario is more vital, at least until May 2, the day the interest rates are published in Europe. In this case, the pair will trade in the corridor: 99.30 - 97.80.