29, January 2013

USD/CHF (4 hour chart)

USD/CHF (4 hour chart)

The dollar/franc continues showing a sell signal. The price is inside of the Ichimoku cloud that is a confirmation of the uncertain mood of the currency pair.

The current sell signal is confirmed and weak as Chinkou Span entrenched below the price chart and the price is within the Ichimoku cloud. So now the goal for the downward movement is the lower boundary of Ichimoku cloud.

In the case of fixing below the Ichimoku cloud the price will continue its downward movement to the first support level (0.9208) as the target. The downward movement is maintained as long as the price is below the Kijun-sen (0.9275). If the price fixes above this line that will weaken a sell signal and will put it on the brink of cancellation and can resume the upward movement to the upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud. Chinkou Span is below the price chart which is a confirmation of the current sell signal and indicates a bearish mood of the currency.

Bollinger Bands show continued weak downward movement, the bands are expanded and slightly downwards. It is recommended to open only short positions taking into the consideration that a "dead cross" remains weak.

MACD currently falls showing the downstream movement.

Rebound from Senkou Span B provoked upward correction which can grow in full upward movement. If the price fixes below the cloud the downward movement will get another chance to continue.

Trading recommendations

It is now advised to consider shorts with the first goal – 0.9208 but only in the case when the price fixes below the Ichimoku cloud. When the price works out the first target it may go to the second level of 0.9152.

Stop loss should be placed above 0.9275 and if this line will go down, you can move the stop loss after it. If you open sell orders MACD must fall down. Reaching profits 50 - 60 points stop-loss can be moved to a zero level. Take-profit can be set slightly above the target levels – 0.9215 and 0.9160.