19, June 2015

USD/CHF (a 4 hour chart)

USD/CHF (a 4 hour chart)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown rapidly against the dollar but then it fell again. The franc growth catalyst was the FOMC meeting results and the regulator head comments.

So, the Fed kept the base rate level forecast at the end of the year while lowering it for the next year. Until the end of 2015 they expect the interest rates increase to 0.625% which implies the twice increase by 25 bp. In the short term the rate is expected to reach 1.625% which is below the March forecast of 1.875%. In accordance with the FOMC statements the interest rate remains within the range of 0.25% to 0.50%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.