09, January 2014

USD/CHF (a 4- hour chart)

USD/CHF (a 4- hour chart)

General Overview

The Swiss franc fell to more than 3-month minimum versus the euro because a high-yield bonds rally in EU had reduced the demand for the Swiss currency as a safe heaven. This year the franc has fallen by 1.2%.

The dollar grew after a report which had showed a larger than-expected reduction in the U.S. trade deficit in November amid rising reduce of oil imports to the lowest level in the last three years, which had improved the attractiveness of U.S. assets.

In January the pair renewed the maximum at the level near 1.6600, but could not consolidate its grip and sank to the level of Fibonacci retracement 23.6% (1.6425). This week the pound is traded versus the U.S. dollar within a narrow range 1.6350–1.6420. It is likely that repeated attempts will be made to overcome the level 1.6600. The pair is at the bottom of the rising channel and tries to recover lost positions. Technical indicators do not give clear signals pointing to lateral movement.

The price is directed upwards. Chinkou Span is above the price. The price is above the cloud.

Northern movement is remained until Kijun-Sen is located below the price. Tenkan-sen is growing, Kijun sen is horizontal. The cloud is growing.

Bollinger bands show an upward movement.
MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and below its signal line. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair reached a new high, and yet in no hurry to leave it up. The northern movement comes to "naught." We expect the correction toward the clouds, the first target is 0.9090, the second will be 0.9040.