03, July 2014

USD/CHF (a 4-hour chart)

USD/CHF (a 4 hour chart)

General overview

The dollar index remained under pressure after reaching the lowest level since May 8.

The investors expect the data publication on the U.S. labor market. We note that, because of the celebration of Independence Day the payrolls will be out on Thursday, July 3. We expect the increase in the new jobs number in June after 213K and 217K on a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to be around 6.3%.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, attention was drawn to the ADP private sector employment report. It is expected to increase to 205K after 179K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8890, the next one is at 0.8850. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed sell signal. The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 0.8850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level of 0.8820.