28, October 2014

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The pound rose after the UK GDP data. However, the market is not in a hurry to fall into euphoria. Taking into consideration that the eurozone economic recovery is progressing very slowly and concerns about the US and China slowdown we can assume that the Bank of England will delay the first rate increase until the second half of 2015. It was earlier expected that the rates will be raised in February. The UK weak salary growth and absence of inflationary pressure makes the period of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England much longer.

There was a short-term price rebound from the support level of 1.6030 that allowed the buyers to correct the price to the downward trend line of 1.6100.

The corrective GBP growth is not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The bears need to break below 1.6100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.6030 will be opened after this breakthrough.