28, January 2014

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

Last Friday the sterling was under severe pressure and lost a great part of its achievements. Obviously, the reason for that became strong resistance levels, to which the pair rose, as well as stock market falling provoked a lack of wish to risk, and the Bank of England head statements, who said that the time to raise the rates did not come, in spite of the unexpectedly rapid fall of the unemployment level.

A break above the resistance 1.6620 was short-term, after that the pair fell sharply. At the moment the risks are neutral, and it is possible both a further drop from the current levels and the resumption of a growth.

In the first case the confirmation of the downward trend development will be a reduction to 1.6200–1.6235. A further break to the key support 1.5850–1.5860 does not seem likely.

The northern movement is almost canceled after the pair decreased. The price is above the cloud and below the Chinkou Span.

The downward movement will be in a force as long the price is below the Kijun -sen. Tenkan-Sen is crossing Kijun-sen down.

Bollinger bands indicator is broadening and directed aside.
The MACD histogram is in a positive zone, showing a decrease.

Trading recommendations

On the weekly chart the continuous growth of the British pound met the resistance level at 1.6485.
The first half of the week can be held in the framework retest 1.6485 with a goal 1.6500–1.6520. After that a reversal and a subsequent bounce down is expected.