27, June 2016

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The collapse of the pound that we saw last Friday was just the beginning of the hard times for the UK economy and we shall see other after-effects soon. The 10-year British bonds yield have already decreased and have fallen to the historical lows. The credit rating of the UK (AAA) has all chances to be revised downwards in the near future.

Current situation

The pound was hurt most of all by the London decision to leave the EU. The pair fell by 10% within hours. That has been the biggest drop in the resent history. The instrument is at the lows now where it was in 80s. The resistance is at 1.3950, the support comes in at 1.3700.

The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages formed a cross-over and are moving downwards that is a sell signal. The indicators are undervalued now. MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD decreases again the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area.

Trading recommendations

If price breaks above 1.4320, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 1.5000. However we do not believe in this scenario much. We assume the instrument will remain under pressure. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3300.