20, June 2016

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The advertising campaigns in the UK were stopped due to the Joe Cox's murder (the Member of Parliament). The demand for the dollar remained weak as the main Central Banks may conduct a joint operation to inject dollar liquidity to the market in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The pound reversed on Friday. However its recovery was stopped near the mark of 1.4400. We believe a lot of sellers are at that level and they will not let buyers to grow further. The resistance is at 1.4400, the support come in at 1.4320.

From a technical point of view, the trend is clearly bearish. The pound continued to show decreasing of highs and lows. The price is below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are below the price and work as support. MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD returns to the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays near the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair consolidated above the 1.4000 level we will see it growing to 1.4560. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4150. We expect a volatility growth this week before the Brexit.