19, June 2015

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the May UK retail sales data. We mark the average earnings growth acceleration at the end of March and April which indicates the consumer spending increase. In this context, we expect the data output bit better than the forecasted medians. The data shed a growth by 0.2% m/m и 4.6% y/y

In view of the US Federal Reserve negative economic forecasts - the pair may reach the psychological level of 1.5950 in the short term.

At the session the British pound session significantly strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the two strong resistance levels: 1.5670, 1.5775. The levels breakthrough was amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5950, 1.6080.