15, November 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The pound rose significantly following the publication of a positive unemployment forecast and BOE Inflation Report. The number of unemployed fell to 41.7 million, in October although traders expected a decrease by 30 thousand. ILO Unemployment Rate decreased from 7.7% in August to 7.6% in September, this is its lowest level for more than four years. Claimant Count Rate in October fell to its lowest level 3.9% since January 2009, compared with 4% in September.

The pound continues to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The first major obstacle to the British currency is the upper limit of the channel (1.6070). If this level is broken the pair is possible to grow to the level 1.6200. The pair fixed yesterday above the moving average that is also a signal for further growth. The pair has a support from 1.6000 psychological level.

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun- Sen are forming a «golden cross», Kijun-Sen is directed downwards, Tenkan-Sen is directed up. Ichimoku cloud is still going down, Chinkou is below the chart, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud.

The downward movement will be continued as long as the Kijun-sen is above the price.

Bollinger bands are widening, turning upwards. MACD histogram crossed the zero line from the down up, its volumes are growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates below 1.5950, we will get a good signal for the downward movement. A reversal pattern "triple top" has been formed on a daily chart. The pair has just started to work out ‘triple top’, and the price updating of the historical low of 16.10.2013 only confirms that.