15, October 2014

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

We do not expect positive news for the British pound- the BRC retail sales for September showed a 2.1% year-on-year decline against the 1.3% growth in August.

The UK consumer price index (CPI) for September is expected to decline from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y.
The base CPI (excluding motor vehicles) is expected to be 1.8% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y in August.
The UK retail price index (RPI) is expected to be 2.3% y / y vs. 2.4% y / y.

The producer prices are expected to decline at the entrance by 0.4% m/m, in the output by 0.1% m/m
The pair GBP/USD is corrected to the downward trend line of 1.6200. The trading volumes do not support the formed correction.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target will be the month low- the resistance level of 1.6030.