15, April 2015

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

The National Statistics Office published the UK March inflation release – the data was 0,01% y/y. The oil market stabilization with the retail sector sales increase in February point out to the data output within the forecasted medians. Seasonal factors also confirm this trend - we traditionally expected the consumer prices growth in the UK.

Last week sellers confidently broke through the strong support level of 1.4800 downwards. This week we predict the reversal level of 1.4800 break through that serves the role of the strong resistance.

Buyers checked this level for strength amid the GBP news. If the level testing is false, there will be the bearish trend confident continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4920.