14, June 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

Inflation expectations in the UK pose challenges to the Bank of England.

Inflation expectations in the UK carry risks as the increase in consumer prices was heightened for a long time.

Inflation exceeds 2% of the Bank of England's target every month since December 2009, as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has updated its mandate in March to give it more flexibility in setting policy. The quarterly central bank survey released last week showed that consumer inflation expectations have changed compared to the first quarter.

The current buy signal is strong and confirmed as Chinkou-span is above the price and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. The upward movement is targeted to 1.5745. Should the price pass it the upward movement may continue to 1.5870. The upward movement is maintained as long as the price is above the Kijun-Sen if the price consolidates below the line, then a buy signal will weaken

Chinkou Span is above the price which confirms the current buy signal and indicates a bullish mood of traders. Tenkan-Sen is below the Kijun-Sen. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are directed upwards. The Cloud is directed down.

Bollinger Bands show a continuation of the upward movement.
MACD is growing.

Bollinger Bands are broadening.
MACD is in a positive zone now and keeps growing.

Trading recommendations

As we expected the level 1.57 remains the main obstacle for a growth. But we can talk about sales only if Tenkan-Sen crosses Kinji-Sen down. The pair remains in a sideways motion at the moment. Should the pair grow the first target will be the level 1.5745. Should the pair fall the first target will be the level 1.5595.