11, October 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The pound fell on Wednesday to 3-week low vesrus the dollar after the release of the trade balance weak data and UK industrial output. The rate of decline in industrial production in August was the highest in nearly a year. Industrial production unexpectedly fell by 1.1% comparing to the previous month, production in manufacturing by 1.2%, while everyone expected its growth. The total balance of trade deficit in August fell from 3.4 billion pounds to 3.3 billion, but it was worse than expected.

On reaching the resistance level 1.6265 the British pound jumped down and began to form a "bearish" candles. The price broke Tenkan -sen and reached the level 1.6000 and continues to decline. In case of 1.6000 breakdown and a further falling the level 1.5880 may serve as a support.

Kijun -Sen and Tenkan -sen maintain the upward crossing "golden cross". However, both trend lines are turned horizontally, parallel to each other.

«MACD» is in a positive area.
Bollinger Bands show a continuation of the downward movement, the bands widen and are directed down. Short positions are recommended now.

Trading Recommendations

The rebound of 1.6050 has led to the exit prices of an intermediate downtrend channel with a further retest of a sloping resistance 1.6120. As the break above the 1.6100 figure failed, the pair has fallen to 1.5950.

If the price breaks this level we can expect its falling to 1.5950. Break of 1.5870.