03, December 2014

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General overview

We received the UK and the US manufacturing sector business optimism release for November. Both reports came out better than the forecasted medians, but if we analyze the average annual dynamics, the US has a clear advantage for the last five months. The UK inflation expectations are still restrained - the 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.91%.

The trade was within the consolidation at the daily support level of 1.5660 for the larger part of November. There was a false level testing with the following rebound upwards.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5550.