03, September 2013

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

GBP/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The British pound expects PMI data in industry, construction and services sectors which will be published in early September. UK economic data get better and reports are expected to support the pound. The Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Wednesday. We do not expect any changes in a monetary policy. The rate shall remain 0.5 % and the program of quantitative easing will be continued. Therefore, the position of the pound could only shake the full strengthening of the dollar. On the other hand GBP/USD with the weakening of the dollar could rise dramatically, almost without a significant correction.

Ichimoku Analysis

During the corrective decline from the resistance level 1.5720 pound broke through the Tenkan -sen and reached the support 1.5420 near the Kijun -sen. Then the price jumped up and consolidated over the level above. The Kijun -Sen and Tenkan -Sen are crossed in a "golden cross". Both trend lines move horizontally parallel to each other.
Bollinger Bands indicator shows a downward movement, the bands are directed down.
The MACD histogram is located in a negative zone near to the zero level.

Trading Recommendations

We expect a rebound of the price which is likely to happen after a retest of the trend line. If that happens, the first goal will be the resistance level 1.5550. If the bulls do not stop the price may grow to another resistance level at around 1.5600 - 1.5615.