23, May 2014

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

EUR/USD (a 4-hour chart)

General Overview

The single European currency fell against the dollar. The negative sentiment comes from the fears that the ECB will begin mitigation measures in June to deal with the low inflation that may turn into a deflation.

The euro buying began after the last Fed meeting minutes publications, indicating that the U.S. CB has no hurry to tighten the policy. The Eurozone newsflow showed the multidirectional economy data. However, the statistic does not affect the euro. We should not wait the support from the fundamental factors. Therefore the pair is likely to continue falling against the dollar.

The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair tested 1.3650, but could not break it. If the price returns back to 1.3680, we should expect a corrective pullback to 1.3800.